Thomas Friedman Justifiably Fears Putin's "Plan C"... But He, Like Everyone Else, Does Not Foresee the End of the Ukrainian State

Should Putin Withdraw or Compromise One Question Remains: Who Will Help Him Pick Up the Pieces?

Thomas Friedman, like virtually every pundit I’ve read or am familiar with, sees no path for Putin to conquer the Ukraine. And, like virtually every pundit I’ve read or am familiar with, he does not see Putin stepping away from the deliberate and wanton destruction he is inflicting on citizens. As a 74-year old sitting in the comfort of my study in a house in a college town, I cannot fathom the horror Ukrainians are now experiencing. Pictures of flattened apartments, theaters, hospitals, and the bombing and strafing of refugees trying to flee the country are chilling. But so too were the pictures from Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan—- all nations that experienced “shock and awe” bombing in the name of installing a government whose views would mirror those attempting to conquer them.

Assuming the pundits and experts are correct and Putin fails to conquer Ukraine, the toughest question for NATO and the US will be whether we are willing to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine's infrastructure. If we do so, we will almost certainly face economic challenges that could lead to more inflation, higher taxes, or, perhaps, both. Will democratic nations be willing to ask their citizens to help a country that was invaded by a totalitarian regime? If we do not help, the devastation in the Ukraine could lead to political destabilization which, in turn, could lead to the election of an authoritarian regime who might be inclined to look to Russia—- or China— for help. Both countries have indicated a desire for expansion of their influence and boundaries and neither would be put off by a totalitarian regime.

If NATO and the US hope to sustain the principals of liberal democracy into the future, it might be wise for the leaders of those countries to prepare their voters for some tough decisions that will emerge once this conflict is over.